New Homes Sell, Starts Stall by Ron Schulz

 

 

Brought to you by Ron Schulz

 

 

   

For the week of april 1, 2019

 

 

YOUR WEEKLY SMILE

 
  Why do hummingbirds hum? Because they don’t know the words.  

 

   

MARKET UPDATE

 
   

 

February saw New Home Sales grow 4.9%, reaching a 667,000 annual rate. The median price was measurably down from a year ago, along with mortgage rates, so it’s no surprise that buyers are showing up.

Housing Starts didn’t do so well, down 8.7%, to a 1.162 million annual rate. Yet 195,000 homes were authorized but not started, close to the largest number since 2007, and homes under construction stayed near a post-recession high.

Pending Home Sales also dipped in February, but only by a modest 1%, and that followed a healthy January bump. But home price gains keep shrinking, and purchase mortgage apps rose 6% for the week.

 

 

   

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

 
   

MAKING HISTORY… Investors sent stock prices north, to close out an historic quarter. The S&P 500 rose 13.1%, its best three-month gain in nearly ten years. The market is a leading indicator of the economy, so this is good news.

With final Q4 GDP at 2.2%, some talked economic slowdown, yet GDP grew 3.0% in 2018, the fastest calendar year growth since 2005, and weekly initial jobless claims dropped by 5,000. 

Those who fret about trade were frustrated by signs of progress in the U.S.-China negotiations and a lower-than-expected January trade deficit. Plus, Personal Income was up, and PCE inflation stayed well under the Fed’s 2% target.

The week ended with the Dow UP 1.7%, to 25929; the S&P 500 UP 1.2%, to 2834; and the Nasdaq UP 1.1%, to 7729.

Bonds came under pressure, but many recovered. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond ended UP .02, to $102.83. In Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate took the biggest drop in over 10 years. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?… In January, the S&P Dow Jones Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose 4.3%, two percentage points below its pace in January 2018.

 

 

   

THIS WEEK’S FORECAST

 
   

ALL GROW: RETAIL, MANUFACTURING, SERVICES, JOBS, WAGES…  Expect all the key reports to show an expanding economy: Retail Sales, ISM Manufacturing, ISM Services, and March jobs, with Nonfarm Payrolls and Hourly Earnings forecast to deliver strong numbers.

NOTE: Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and higher loan rates.

 

 

   

FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH

 
   

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… The Fed Funds Futures market sees rates holding through the summer. All the probabilities of change are for a downward move in rates. Note: In the lower chart, an 8% probability of change is a 92% probability the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 2.25%-2.50%

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS
May  1 2.25%-2.50%
Jun 19 2.25%-2.50%
Jul  31 2.25%-2.50%

 

Probability of change from current policy:

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS
May  1     8%
Jun 19    17%
Jul  31    24%

 

 

 

   

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK

 
  With online videos, go for quality over quantity. When you have something of value for your prospects and customers, get it out there. Otherwise, stay quiet. Never waste the viewer’s time.  

 

  Ron Schulz
Senior Loan Officer
NMLS# 266128

6060 North Central Exp #438
Dallas, TX 75206

Office: 214-346-5279
Mobile: 214-794-4014
ron.schulz@supremelending.com
www.ronschulz.com

 

   

 

 

   

This post is an advertisement for Ron Schulz. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in this message is the property of Supreme Lending and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. This message is intended for business professionals only and is not intended for distribution to consumers or other third parties. The material does not represent the opinion of Supreme Lending. ADVERTISEMENT. Offer not contingent on use of specific settlement service provider. ADVERTISEMENT. EVERETT FINANCIAL, INC. D/B/A SUPREME LENDING NMLS ID #2129 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org) 14801 Quorum Dr., #300, Dallas, TX 75254. 877-350-5225. Copyright © 2019. Not an offer or agreement. Information, rates, & programs are subject to change without prior notice. Not available in all states. Subject to credit & property approval. Not affiliated with any government agency. Supreme Lending is required to disclose the following license information: AZ Mortgage Banker License 0925918. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CA Residential Mortgage Lending Act License 4130655. CO Mortgage Company – Regulated by the Division of Real Estate. Delaware Lender License 10885. GA Mortgage Lender License 22114– Georgia Residential Mortgage Licensee. IL Residential Mortgage License MB.6760323-DBA1– Illinois Residential Mortgage Licensee. MA Mortgage Broker License MC2129. MA Mortgage Lender License MC2129. Licensed by the N.J. Department of Banking and Insurance – New Jersey Residential Mortgage Lender License. Licensed Mortgage Banker-NYS Department of Financial Service. NY Mortgage Banker License B501049. Ohio Mortgage Broker Act Certificate of Registration MB.804158.000. Ohio Mortgage Loan Act Certificate of Registration SM.501888.000. OR Mortgage Lending License ML-4265. Licensed Mortgage Banker by the PA Department of Banking – Pennsylvania Mortgage Lender License 45048. Rhode Island Licensed Lender 20142998LL.

 

 

Leave a Reply