Housing Starts Down, Trend Stays Up by Ron Schulz



Brought to you by Ron Schulz




For the week of october 21, 2019




  Why do birds fly south in the fall? Because it’s too far to walk.  





Following their 12-year high in August, Housing Starts [em.mediacenternow.com] took a break in September, off 9.4%, but at a still decent 1.256 million annual rate. The dip was all from multi-families–single-family starts were up for the fourth month in a row.

Since bottoming in February, single-family starts have trended upward, and are now near new highs. No wonder October’s National Association of Home Builders sentiment index hit its best read in 20 months.

Freddie Mac’s chief economist noted, “economic trends like employment and homebuilder sentiment are encouraging,” observing “the housing market remains on the upswing.”






COMPANIES ARE STILL MAKING MONEY!… The gloomy recessionistas got foiled again, as the first big week of corporate earnings season showed companies made more money in Q3 than expected, and stocks dutifully shot up.

The Dow was off a tick, but that was after two of its 30 components had bad news hammer their prices, dragging down the whole party. China saw its slowest economic growth in over 27 years, which could speed a U.S. trade deal.

Retail Sales were off in September, but up a solid 4.1% the past year. Excluding volatile autos, building materials, and gas, retail sales are up an annualized 8.6% rate since the start of 2019, the fastest year-to-date growth since 1992!

The week ended with the Dow down 0.2%, to 26,770; the S&P 500 UP 0.5%, to 2,986; and the Nasdaq UP 0.4%, to 8090.

Bonds overall edged up, though some went south, others sideways. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond ended unchanged, at $103.64. In Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage went up, yet remains more than 1% lower than a year ago. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?… Thanks to today’s mortgage rates, Fannie Mae forecasts mortgage originations will top $2 trillion in 2019, making it the best year since 2016. If the trendline continues, originations could reach a 12-year high by year-end.






EXISTING HOME SALES EDGE UP, NEW HOME SALES SLIP DOWN… We’ll get key sales reads on the September housing market, with Existing Home Sales  expected up over 5.5 million units annually, and New Home Sales down a tick, though still over 700,000 units for the year.

NOTE: Weaker economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and higher loan rates.






Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… The shock to Wall Street would be if we don’t get a Fed rate cut in nine days, but that should be it  through the end of January. Note: In the lower chart, a 91% probability of change is only a 9% probability the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 1.75%-2.00%

Oct 30 1.50%-1.75%
Dec 11 1.50%-1.75%
Jan 29 1.50%-1.75%


Probability of change from current policy:

Oct 30    91%
Dec 11    32%
Jan 29    48%






  Your brand is what people feel you represent–and therefore it is key to getting and keeping clients. Nurture and build your brand by putting everything you believe into everything you do–and watch your business grow.  


  Ron Schulz
Senior Loan Officer
NMLS# 266128

6060 North Central Exp #462
Dallas, TX 75206

Office: 214-346-5279
Mobile: 214-794-4014
www.ronschulz.com [em.mediacenternow.com]







This post is an advertisement for Ron Schulz. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in this message is the property of Supreme Lending and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. This message is intended for business professionals only and is not intended for distribution to consumers or other third parties. The material does not represent the opinion of Supreme Lending. ADVERTISEMENT. Offer not contingent on use of specific settlement service provider. ADVERTISEMENT. EVERETT FINANCIAL, INC. D/B/A SUPREME LENDING NMLS ID #2129 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org) 14801 Quorum Dr., #300, Dallas, TX 75254. 877-350-5225. Copyright © 2019. Not an offer or agreement. Information, rates, & programs are subject to change without prior notice. Not available in all states. Subject to credit & property approval. Not affiliated with any government agency. Supreme Lending is required to disclose the following license information: AZ Mortgage Banker License 0925918. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CA Residential Mortgage Lending Act License 4130655. CO Mortgage Company – Regulated by the Division of Real Estate. Delaware Lender License 10885. GA Mortgage Lender License 22114– Georgia Residential Mortgage Licensee. IL Residential Mortgage License MB.6760323-DBA1– Illinois Residential Mortgage Licensee. MA Mortgage Broker License MC2129. MA Mortgage Lender License MC2129. Licensed by the N.J. Department of Banking and Insurance – New Jersey Residential Mortgage Lender License. Licensed Mortgage Banker-NYS Department of Financial Service. NY Mortgage Banker License B501049. Ohio Mortgage Broker Act Certificate of Registration MB.804158.000. Ohio Mortgage Loan Act Certificate of Registration SM.501888.000. OR Mortgage Lending License ML-4265. Licensed Mortgage Banker by the PA Department of Banking – Pennsylvania Mortgage Lender License 45048. Rhode Island Licensed Lender 20142998LL.




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