Home Sales Surge by Ron Schulz



Brought to you by Ron Schulz




For the week of July 27, 2020




  “If you really want to do something, you’ll find a way. If you don’t, you’ll find an excuse.”—Jim Rohn, American entrepreneur, author, and motivational speaker  





The V-shaped housing recovery continues. New Home Sales [em.mediacenternow.com] soared in June to a level higher than the one they reached before the shutdown–up 13.8% for the month, posting their highest annual sales rate since 2007!

Existing Home Sales [em.mediacenternow.com] spiked 20.7% in June, their biggest monthly gain ever. Sales are still down 11.3% from a year ago, but demand is strong–62% of homes sold were on the market less than a month.

Attom Data [em.mediacenternow.com] reports the typical home-sale profit hit $75,971 in the second quarter this year. That’s a 36.3% return on investment (ROI) from the original price for home sellers, a new post-recession high.






MIXED FEELINGS… Wall Street saw a few noteworthy developments to feel good about, and a few to worry over. The net result? The three major stock indexes saw modest declines at the end of a light data week.

Points of worry included initial jobless claims inching up after shutdowns in states with “second wave” coronavirus infections. There were also concerns over tensions with China and delays around an upcoming economic relief bill.

But we got blow-out housing market reports, and continuing jobless claims keep falling. Plus, quarterly corporate earnings have exceeded expectations, and there were signs of progress on the vaccine front.

The week ended with the Dow down 0.8%, to 26,470; the S&P 500 down 0.3%, to 3,216; and the Nasdaq down 1.3%, to 10,363.

Bonds didn’t do much, some posting slim losses, others slim gains. The UMBS 3.0% went down 0.9, to $105.27. In Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was up slightly from the prior week’s record low. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?… The housing market’s recovery is doing a nice job relieving the shutdown’s stress on the overall economy. That’s because housing related expenditures account for about 15% of the country’s GDP!






PENDING HOME SALES UP IN A DATA PACKED WEEK… June Pending Home Sales should show contracts signed on existing homes up again. But Consumer Confidence might be off a little, while the GDP-Advanced read reflects the full impact of the shutdown in Q2. But Initial Unemployment Claims should fall, while Personal Spending has consumers contributing to the recovery, Core PCE Prices keep inflation in check, and the Fed leaves rates alone.

NOTE: Weaker economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and higher loan rates.






Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… No one sees the Fed touching rates this week, or any time before the economy fully returns to where it was before the shutdown. Note: In the lower chart, a 0% probability of change is a 100% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%-0.25%

Jul 29 0.00%-0.25%
Sep 16 0.00%-0.25%
Nov 5 0.00%-0.25%


Probability of change from current policy:

Jul 29     0%
Sep 16     0%
Nov 5     0%






  With prospects and clients, do less talking and more listening. The more you listen, the quicker the relationship naturally grows, while you gain insight into what it will take to fulfill their wants and needs.   


  Ron Schulz
Senior Loan Officer
NMLS# 266128

5612 Richmond Ave
Dallas, TX 75206

Office: 214-346-5279
Mobile: 214-794-4014
www.ronschulz.com [em.mediacenternow.com]







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