Home Sales and Starts Rebound by Ron Schulz




Brought to you by Ron Schulz




For the week of june 24, 2019




  On a hot summer day, go to a baseball game. You’ll find lots of fans.  





After two down months, Existing Home Sales [em.mediacenternow.com] made a broad-based rebound in May, up 2.5%, to a 5.340 million annual rate. Plus, more homes are coming on the market, with inventories up year-over-year now ten straight months.

Following April’s upwardly revised read, May Housing Starts [em.mediacenternow.com] dipped less than 1%, but, posting a 1.269 million annual rate, beat expectations. And home building was up 2.4% in Q1 2019 versus Q4 2018, signaling a rebound.

There’s room for growth in home building, as households have both low debt relative to assets and low debt service relative to incomes. No wonder builder sentiment remains higher than the 2006-2016 annual average.






SUMMER FUN… A new season started Friday, and Wall Street wasted no time getting into the summer fun, as stocks ended ahead for the third straight week, with the Dow and the S&P 500 closing at new record highs.

The Fed got the party going. After their meeting left rates untouched, as expected, their policy statement removed the comment they would be “patient” about cutting rates, which traders interpreted as a cut come July.

The Fed cited “increased economic uncertainties,” although there was the positive trade news that President Trump will have an extended meeting with President Xi at the G-20 economic summit next week.

The week ended with the Dow UP 2.4%, to 26719; the S&P 500 UP 2.2%, to 2950; and the Nasdaq UP 3.0%, to 8032.

Bonds hit their best levels of the year, then retreated Friday. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond ended UP .08, to $103.22. The national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate stabilized near its two-year low in Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?… The National Association of Realtors [em.mediacenternow.com] reports 46% of Americans strongly believe now is a good time to sell a home. They note: “sellers understand that the days of large price gains from holding an extra year are over.”






NEW AND PENDING HOME SALES, GDP GROW, INFLATION DOESN’T…  The forecasts call for growing reads for both New Home Sales and the Pending Home Sales index of contracts signed on existing homes. The GDP-Third Estimate for Q1 should stay north of 3%, while the Core PCE Price Index is predicted to show inflation remains benign.

NOTE: Weaker economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and higher loan rates.






Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… The Fed Funds Futures market says a July rate cut is a sure thing, with another drop likely in September. There’s a 47% possibility of a rate cut in October, but that’s balanced by a 9% likelihood of a hike, so the rate will probably hold. Note: In the lower chart, a 100% probability of change is a 0% probability the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 2.25%-2.50%

Jul 31 2.00%-2.25%
Sep 18 1.75%-2.00%
Oct 30 1.75%-2.00%


Probability of change from current policy:

Jul 31   100%
Sep 18    84%
Oct 30    56%






  When scheduling your time, give priority to the tasks that will bring you closer to your daily, weekly, monthly, yearly, and lifetime goals. Focus on what’s truly important, not simply on “getting everything done.”  


  Ron Schulz
Senior Loan Officer
NMLS# 266128

6060 North Central Exp #462
Dallas, TX 75206

Office: 214-346-5279
Mobile: 214-794-4014
www.ronschulz.com [em.mediacenternow.com]







This post is an advertisement for Ron Schulz. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in this message is the property of Supreme Lending and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. This message is intended for business professionals only and is not intended for distribution to consumers or other third parties. The material does not represent the opinion of Supreme Lending. ADVERTISEMENT. Offer not contingent on use of specific settlement service provider. ADVERTISEMENT. EVERETT FINANCIAL, INC. D/B/A SUPREME LENDING NMLS ID #2129 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org) 14801 Quorum Dr., #300, Dallas, TX 75254. 877-350-5225. Copyright © 2019. Not an offer or agreement. Information, rates, & programs are subject to change without prior notice. Not available in all states. Subject to credit & property approval. Not affiliated with any government agency. Supreme Lending is required to disclose the following license information: AZ Mortgage Banker License 0925918. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CA Residential Mortgage Lending Act License 4130655. CO Mortgage Company – Regulated by the Division of Real Estate. Delaware Lender License 10885. GA Mortgage Lender License 22114– Georgia Residential Mortgage Licensee. IL Residential Mortgage License MB.6760323-DBA1– Illinois Residential Mortgage Licensee. MA Mortgage Broker License MC2129. MA Mortgage Lender License MC2129. Licensed by the N.J. Department of Banking and Insurance – New Jersey Residential Mortgage Lender License. Licensed Mortgage Banker-NYS Department of Financial Service. NY Mortgage Banker License B501049. Ohio Mortgage Broker Act Certificate of Registration MB.804158.000. Ohio Mortgage Loan Act Certificate of Registration SM.501888.000. OR Mortgage Lending License ML-4265. Licensed Mortgage Banker by the PA Department of Banking – Pennsylvania Mortgage Lender License 45048. Rhode Island Licensed Lender 20142998LL.




  This e-mail was sent to ron.schulz@supremelending.com.
You may unsubscribe from future advertisement e-mails from Ron Schulz.
Click here to unsubscribe [em.mediacenternow.com]



Having trouble viewing this email? Click here [em.mediacenternow.com] to view web version






Leave a Reply