Here Come The Homebuyers by Ron Schulz



Brought to you by Ron Schulz




For the week of november 11, 2019




  Optimism is the one quality more associated with success and happiness than any other–Brian Tracy, motivational speaker and author  





TransUnion [] projects a flood of 8.3 million first-time homebuyers will hit the market in the next three years, more than in any three-year period in the last decade. And if economic growth beats expectations, make that 9.2 million.

CoreLogic []‘s chief economist reports, “In addition to lower interest rates, personal income grew faster than home prices during the past year,” helping to boost the homeownership rate to its highest level in more than five years. 

Those low mortgage rates continue to fuel homebuyer demand, boosting another gain in overall home builder confidence. The National Association of Home Builders confidence index rose to a strong 75 read in September.






TRADE OPTIMISM SETS RECORDS… Growing optimism all week that the long-running trade dispute with China would be resolved powered the markets to new highs for the Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq.

The President said he hadn’t yet agreed to trim tariffs in stages, but that didn’t derail the rally amidst decent Q3 corporate earnings and a brightened consumer mood as reported by the U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index.   

As one analyst put it, “It’s really hard to have a recession, or some sort of crisis, when you have full employment, a friendly Fed and a government that’s lowering regulations and has lowered taxes.”

The week ended with the Dow UP 1.2%, to 27,681; the S&P 500 UP 0.9%, to 3,093; and the Nasdaq UP 1.1%, to 8,475.

As equities headed up, bonds went the other way. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond ended down .23, at $103.52. In Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell back, and is now 1.25% lower than a year ago. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?… The Census Bureau reports that more than 40% of renters were cost-burdened in 2018, spending at least 35% of income on housing costs. But only 21% of homeowners with a mortgage were similarly cost-burdened, down from 29% ten years ago.






INFLATION AND RETAIL SALES EDGE UP… Economists expect inflation to increase a tick overall in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a little less in the Core CPI, which takes out volatile food and energy prices. Retail Sales should grow nicely in October and head even higher when you exclude volatile auto sales.

NOTE: Weaker economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and higher loan rates.






Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… Now that the Fed did its rate cut, everyone’s settling in to this level of interest rates till the advent of spring. Note: In the lower chart, a 4% probability of change is a 96% probability the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 1.50%-1.75%

Dec 11 1.50%-1.75%
Jan 29 1.50%-1.75%
Mar 18 1.50%-1.75%


Probability of change from current policy:

Dec 11     4%
Jan 29    14%
Mar 18    24%






  Successful people are passionate about their work. The truth is, if you aren’t absolutely obsessed with what you’re doing, your performance will probably be average.  


  Ron Schulz
Senior Loan Officer
NMLS# 266128

6060 North Central Exp #462
Dallas, TX 75206

Office: 214-346-5279
Mobile: 214-794-4014 []







This post is an advertisement for Ron Schulz. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in this message is the property of Supreme Lending and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. This message is intended for business professionals only and is not intended for distribution to consumers or other third parties. The material does not represent the opinion of Supreme Lending. ADVERTISEMENT. Offer not contingent on use of specific settlement service provider. ADVERTISEMENT. EVERETT FINANCIAL, INC. D/B/A SUPREME LENDING NMLS ID #2129 ( 14801 Quorum Dr., #300, Dallas, TX 75254. 877-350-5225. Copyright © 2019. Not an offer or agreement. Information, rates, & programs are subject to change without prior notice. Not available in all states. Subject to credit & property approval. Not affiliated with any government agency. Supreme Lending is required to disclose the following license information: AZ Mortgage Banker License 0925918. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CA Residential Mortgage Lending Act License 4130655. CO Mortgage Company – Regulated by the Division of Real Estate. Delaware Lender License 10885. GA Mortgage Lender License 22114– Georgia Residential Mortgage Licensee. IL Residential Mortgage License MB.6760323-DBA1– Illinois Residential Mortgage Licensee. MA Mortgage Broker License MC2129. MA Mortgage Lender License MC2129. Licensed by the N.J. Department of Banking and Insurance – New Jersey Residential Mortgage Lender License. Licensed Mortgage Banker-NYS Department of Financial Service. NY Mortgage Banker License B501049. Ohio Mortgage Broker Act Certificate of Registration MB.804158.000. Ohio Mortgage Loan Act Certificate of Registration SM.501888.000. OR Mortgage Lending License ML-4265. Licensed Mortgage Banker by the PA Department of Banking – Pennsylvania Mortgage Lender License 45048. Rhode Island Licensed Lender 20142998LL.




Leave a Reply