Builders Slower but Confident by Ron Schulz

 

 

 

Brought to you by Ron Schulz

 

 

   

For the week of april 22, 2019

 

 

YOUR WEEKLY SMILE

 
  What’s the best time of year to enjoy a trampoline? Spring-time!  

 

   

NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE

 
   

Housing Starts slowed 0.3% nationally in March, to a 1.139 million annual rate, staying strong in the West, but down a bit in the South and Northeast, with a big drop in the flood-ravaged Midwest.

Yet National Association of Home Builders builder confidence rose to 63 in April, thanks to job growth and low mortgage rates. That should mean an April uptick in starts, and a possible upward revision to March numbers.

Freddie Mac’s chief economist observed last week that although “mortgage rates have modestly increased… purchase activity reached a nine-year high–indicative of a strong spring homebuying season.”

 

 

   

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

 
   

INVESTORS GO LONG IN A SHORT WEEK… Financial markets were closed Good Friday, and in the short trading week, investors mostly went long, pushing the Dow and the Nasdaq up, leaving the S&P 500 flat.

The first full week of corporate earnings saw a slew of companies report first quarter beats, roundly rebuffing analysts expecting drops. Retail Sales rebounded nicely in March, up a very nice 1.6%.

Those seeking copacetic economic news had to look no further than Initial Unemployment Claims, down for the fifth straight week, to 192,000, a near-50-year low! 

The week ended with the Dow UP 0.6%, to 26560; the S&P 500 off just two points, to 2905; and the Nasdaq UP 0.2%, to 7998.

Bonds were boosted by disappointing manufacturing reads from abroad. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond ended UP .06, to $102.47. In Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose a tick but stayed well below its level of a year ago. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?… A poll of home shoppers by realtor.com found that just under 60% were considering a home that needs major improvements and were willing to spend $20,000 or more for renovations.

 

 

   

THIS WEEK’S FORECAST

 
   

NEW AND EXISTING HOME SALES, GDP SLIP JUST A BIT…  March New Home Sales and Existing Home Sales are forecast down a bit from February. The GDP-Advance Estimate for Q1 should show the economy growing at around a 2% annual rate, off a tick from the prior read.

NOTE: Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and higher loan rates.

 

 

   

FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH

 
   

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… Wall Street still sees very little chance of a rate hike, or a rate cut, at the next three Fed meetups. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% probability the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 2.25%-2.50%

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS
May  1 2.25%-2.50%
Jun 19 2.25%-2.50%
Jul  31 2.25%-2.50%

 

Probability of change from current policy:

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS
May  1     1%
Jun 19     7%
Jul  31    11%

 

 

 

   

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK

 
  More important than handing out business cards is receiving them. This lets you make the first follow-up contact to recap what you talked about and reiterate your value. Of course, a good way to get someone’s card is to hand them yours first!  

 

  Ron Schulz
Senior Loan Officer
NMLS# 266128

6060 North Central Exp #438
Dallas, TX 75206

Office: 214-346-5279
Mobile: 214-794-4014
ron.schulz@supremelending.com
www.ronschulz.com

 

   

 

 

   

This post is an advertisement for Ron Schulz. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in this message is the property of Supreme Lending and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. This message is intended for business professionals only and is not intended for distribution to consumers or other third parties. The material does not represent the opinion of Supreme Lending. ADVERTISEMENT. Offer not contingent on use of specific settlement service provider. ADVERTISEMENT. EVERETT FINANCIAL, INC. D/B/A SUPREME LENDING NMLS ID #2129 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org) 14801 Quorum Dr., #300, Dallas, TX 75254. 877-350-5225. Copyright © 2019. Not an offer or agreement. Information, rates, & programs are subject to change without prior notice. Not available in all states. Subject to credit & property approval. Not affiliated with any government agency. Supreme Lending is required to disclose the following license information: AZ Mortgage Banker License 0925918. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CA Residential Mortgage Lending Act License 4130655. CO Mortgage Company – Regulated by the Division of Real Estate. Delaware Lender License 10885. GA Mortgage Lender License 22114– Georgia Residential Mortgage Licensee. IL Residential Mortgage License MB.6760323-DBA1– Illinois Residential Mortgage Licensee. MA Mortgage Broker License MC2129. MA Mortgage Lender License MC2129. Licensed by the N.J. Department of Banking and Insurance – New Jersey Residential Mortgage Lender License. Licensed Mortgage Banker-NYS Department of Financial Service. NY Mortgage Banker License B501049. Ohio Mortgage Broker Act Certificate of Registration MB.804158.000. Ohio Mortgage Loan Act Certificate of Registration SM.501888.000. OR Mortgage Lending License ML-4265. Licensed Mortgage Banker by the PA Department of Banking – Pennsylvania Mortgage Lender License 45048. Rhode Island Licensed Lender 20142998LL.

 

 

 

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