Builder Confidence At A 20-Year High by Ron Schulz

 

 

Brought to you by Ron Schulz

 

 

   

For the week of december 23, 2019

 

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

 
  Appreciation can change a day, even change a life. Your willingness to put it into works is all that is necessary.–Margaret Cousins, Indian-Irish poet  

 

   

NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE

 
   

In December, the National Association of Home Builders confidence index hit its highest level since 1999. Builders are clearly more optimistic, as mortgage rates dropped while wages are now growing near the fastest pace in a decade.

More evidence of builder confidence was seen in Housing Starts [em.mediacenternow.com], 13.6% ahead of a year ago. The three-month average of single-family starts reached a post-recession high, along with total and single-family permits. 

Existing Home Sales [em.mediacenternow.com] rose 2.7% annually, but dipped 1.7% for November. The NAR chief economist noted, “inventory levels are low, but the economy is otherwise performing very well with more than 2 million job gains in the past year.”

 

 

   

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

 
   

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SENDS STOCKS TO RECORD HIGHS… Wall Streeters pushed the S&P 500 past the 3,200 milestone and the Dow and the Nasdaq into new record territory on encouraging economic data.

The housing reports covered above were just the start. Industrial production scored its biggest monthly gain in two years. And personal goods consumption grew during 2019 at the fastest annualized pace in 15 years. 

The Q3 GDP-third estimate held at a decent  2.1% growth, while consumers upped their spending in November at the fastest rate in four months. Small wonder, as personal income is up 4.9%, but inflation only 1.6%, in the past year.

The week ended with the Dow UP 1.2%, to 28,455; the S&P 500 UP 1.7%, to 3,221; and the Nasdaq UP 2.2%, to 8,925.

Treasuries finished the week down, but other bonds held up despite surging stocks. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond ended UP .10, to $103.88. The national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was unchanged in Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?… Consumer debts relative to assets are the lowest since 1984. Thanks to a solid economy, people can pay their debts on time. Experian [em.mediacenternow.com] reports this has pushed credit scores to their highest level in eight years!

 

 

   

THIS WEEK’S FORECAST

 
   

NEW HOME SALES GROW… In a thin week of economic reports, it’s expected that New Home Sales for November will post around a 735,000 unit annual rate.

We wish you and yours all the best this holiday season! Tuesday, December 24, stock markets will close at 1 p.m. and the bond market at 2. All financial markets will be closed Wednesday, Christmas Day. 

NOTE: Weaker economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and higher loan rates.

 

 

   

FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH

 
   

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… The Fed says rates should stay where they are for all of next year and the Fed Funds futures market agrees. Note: In the lower chart, a 4% probability of change is a 96% probability the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 1.50%-1.75%

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS
Jan 29 1.50%-1.75%
Mar 18 1.50%-1.75%
Apr 29 1.50%-1.75%

 

Probability of change from current policy:

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS
Jan 29     4%
Mar 18     8%
Apr 29    15%

 

 

 

   

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK

 
  Studies show that simply putting your goals for next year in writing increases your chances of achieving them exponentially. And forget comfortable, “can’t-miss” goals. Get out of your comfort zone and reach for the stars!  

 

  Ron Schulz
Senior Loan Officer
NMLS# 266128

5612 Richmond Ave
Dallas, TX 75206

Office: 214-346-5279
Mobile: 214-794-4014
ron.schulz@supremelending.com
www.ronschulz.com [em.mediacenternow.com]

 

   

 

[em.mediacenternow.com]

 

   

This post is an advertisement for Ron Schulz. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in this message is the property of Supreme Lending and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. This message is intended for business professionals only and is not intended for distribution to consumers or other third parties. The material does not represent the opinion of Supreme Lending. ADVERTISEMENT. Offer not contingent on use of specific settlement service provider. ADVERTISEMENT. EVERETT FINANCIAL, INC. D/B/A SUPREME LENDING NMLS ID #2129 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org) 14801 Quorum Dr., #300, Dallas, TX 75254. 877-350-5225. Copyright © 2019. Not an offer or agreement. Information, rates, & programs are subject to change without prior notice. Not available in all states. Subject to credit & property approval. Not affiliated with any government agency. Supreme Lending is required to disclose the following license information: AZ Mortgage Banker License 0925918. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CA Residential Mortgage Lending Act License 4130655. CO Mortgage Company – Regulated by the Division of Real Estate. Delaware Lender License 10885. GA Mortgage Lender License 22114– Georgia Residential Mortgage Licensee. IL Residential Mortgage License MB.6760323-DBA1– Illinois Residential Mortgage Licensee. MA Mortgage Broker License MC2129. MA Mortgage Lender License MC2129. Licensed by the N.J. Department of Banking and Insurance – New Jersey Residential Mortgage Lender License. Licensed Mortgage Banker-NYS Department of Financial Service. NY Mortgage Banker License B501049. Ohio Mortgage Broker Act Certificate of Registration MB.804158.000. Ohio Mortgage Loan Act Certificate of Registration SM.501888.000. OR Mortgage Lending License ML-4265. Licensed Mortgage Banker by the PA Department of Banking – Pennsylvania Mortgage Lender License 45048. Rhode Island Licensed Lender 20142998LL.

 

 

 

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