A Good Time to Buy and Sell by Ron Schulz

 

 

Brought to you by Ron Schulz

 

 

   

For the week of July 13, 2020

 

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

 
  “I never dreamed about success, I worked for it.”—Estee Lauder, American businesswoman  

 

   

NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE

 
   

Fannie Mae [em.mediacenternow.com]’s June Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) revealed 61% of respondents think now is a good time to buy a home and 41% feel it’s a good time to sell–big rebounds from the survey’s record lows two months ago.

Also rebounding: realtor.com [em.mediacenternow.com]’s latest Housing Market Recovery Index posted the largest nationwide weekly gain since its inception, ending up just a smidge below its pre-COVID baseline.

Plus, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist likes what he sees in the housing market across the country: “The summer is heating up as record low mortgage rates continue to spur homebuyer demand.”

 

 

   

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

 
   

CERTAINTY BEATS UNCERTAINTY… Overlooking uncertainty about the path of the virus, investors kept stocks heading up, motivated by the emerging certainty the economy is solidly rebounding.

The recent string of economic surprises continued: after its biggest ever monthly gain, the June ISM Non-Manufacturing Index signaled that the services sector, providing almost 80% of our jobs, is expanding again.

Deliveries are getting back to normal, and the Producer Price Index of wholesale price inflation dipped, a good sign consumer prices should hold steady. Finally, initial jobless claims have now fallen 14 weeks in a row.

The week ended with the Dow UP 1.0%, to 26,075; the S&P 500 UP 1.8%, to 3,185; and the Nasdaq UP 4.0%, to 10,617.

As equities jumped, bonds slid. The UMBS 3.0% ended down 0.39, to $105.19. In Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate set a new all-time record low. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?…The first quarter saw a record $6.5 trillion in tappable home equity—the amount a homeowner with a mortgage can borrow while maintaining 20% equity. Black Knight [em.mediacenternow.com] says more than 75% of homeowners are viable refinance candidates who could tap into equity and lower their interest rate.

 

 

   

THIS WEEK’S FORECAST

 
   

HOME BUILDING, RETAIL, CONSUMER SENTIMENT UP; JOBLESS CLAIMS, INFLATION DOWN… Forecasts call for a continued rebound in Housing Starts and Building Permits. Likewise for Retail Sales and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. All were no doubt helped by expected low Consumer Price Index inflation and an ongoing drop in Initial Unemployment Claims.

NOTE: Weaker economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and higher loan rates.

 

 

   

FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH

 
   

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… Analysts believe the Fed will keep rates near zero until we see almost full economic recovery. Note: In the lower chart, a 0% probability of change is a 100% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%-0.25%

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS
Jul 29 0.00%-0.25%
Sep 16 0.00%-0.25%
Nov 5 0.00%-0.25%

 

Probability of change from current policy:

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS
Jul 29     0%
Sep 16     0%
Nov 5     0%

 

 

 

   

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK

 
  Stop planning and start doing. Most “planning” is just procrastinating. It is better to take some form of action than to keep assessing a situation and planning what actions you’ll take. As that athletic brand says: Just Do It.   

 

  Ron Schulz
Senior Loan Officer
NMLS# 266128

5612 Richmond Ave
Dallas, TX 75206

Office: 214-346-5279
Mobile: 214-794-4014
ron.schulz@supremelending.com
www.ronschulz.com [em.mediacenternow.com]

 

   

 

[em.mediacenternow.com]

 

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