Strong Fall Housing Market Forecast by Ron Schulz

 

 

Brought to you by Ron Schulz

 

 

   

For the week of october 7, 2019

 

 

YOUR WEEKLY SMILE

 
  If money really did grow on trees, this time of year we’d all be raking it in!  

 

   

NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE

 
   

Freddie Mac [em.mediacenternow.com] forecasts the housing market should stay strong well into the fall. Their Chief Economist believes today’s low mortgage rates “will help boost sales,” making housing “a bright spot in the economy.”

Indeed, the latest National Association of Realtors HOME [em.mediacenternow.com] survey says 63% of Americans feel now is a good time to buy a home, 34% strongly believe this is true, and there’s “no sign of the optimism about home buying fading.”

The National Association of Home Builders reported “solid household formations and attractive mortgage rates are contributing to a positive builder outlook,” as their builder confidence index rose, along with buyer traffic.

 

 

   

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

 
   

UNEMPLOYMENT HITS A 50-YEAR LOW… Stocks dipped in volatile trading, but the September jobs report’s 3.5% unemployment rate–a 50-year low!–held off larger declines, and the tech-y Nasdaq actually finished ahead.

The 136,000 new Nonfarm Payrolls were joined by 45,000 more jobs added in upward revisions to prior months. Hourly earnings were flat for the month, but total wages are now up 4.3% over a year ago. 

ISM Manufacturing fell below 50, indicating contraction, and ISM Services dipped, though still showed growth. But both are surveys, not actual performance measures. In fact, Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed the economy is “in a good place.”

The week ended with the Dow down 0.9%, to 26,574; the S&P 500 down 0.3%, to 2,952; but the Nasdaq UP 0.5%, to 7,982.

Things stayed bullish in the bond market. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond ended UP .21, to $103.88. Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey had the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate up a tick, but more than 1% lower than a year ago. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?… The U.S. economic expansion will continue at least until 2021 according to the Urban Land Institute. This comes from a survey of 41 economists at 32 top real estate companies.

 

 

   

THIS WEEK’S FORECAST

 
   

INFLATION STAYS UNDER CONTROL… The key reports are all about inflation. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) should show overall inflation barely up in September, with Core CPI, excluding volatile food and  energy prices, a bit higher. The Producer Price Index is expected to give similar reads on wholesale prices.

NOTE: Weaker economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and higher loan rates.

 

 

   

FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH

 
   

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… Last week, Fed Chair Powell declared the central bank’s job is to “keep the economy expanding as long as possible.” Now Wall Street expects a rate drop in October and another in January. Note: In the lower chart, an 82% probability of change is only an 18% probability the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 1.75%-2.00%

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS
Oct 30 1.50%-1.75%
Dec 11 1.50%-1.75%
Jan 29 1.25%-1.50%

 

Probability of change from current policy:

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS
Oct 30    82%
Dec 11    45%
Jan 29    74%

 

 

 

   

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK

 
  Don’t avoid something just because it seems painful or difficult. Follow the example of endurance athletes: assess and accept the challenge; make a commitment to push through the pain; keep raising the bar of what you expect from yourself.  

 

  Ron Schulz
Senior Loan Officer
NMLS# 266128

6060 North Central Exp #462
Dallas, TX 75206

Office: 214-346-5279
Mobile: 214-794-4014
ron.schulz@supremelending.com
www.ronschulz.com [em.mediacenternow.com]

 

   

 

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This post is an advertisement for Ron Schulz. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in this message is the property of Supreme Lending and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. This message is intended for business professionals only and is not intended for distribution to consumers or other third parties. The material does not represent the opinion of Supreme Lending. ADVERTISEMENT. Offer not contingent on use of specific settlement service provider. ADVERTISEMENT. EVERETT FINANCIAL, INC. D/B/A SUPREME LENDING NMLS ID #2129 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org) 14801 Quorum Dr., #300, Dallas, TX 75254. 877-350-5225. Copyright © 2019. Not an offer or agreement. Information, rates, & programs are subject to change without prior notice. Not available in all states. Subject to credit & property approval. Not affiliated with any government agency. Supreme Lending is required to disclose the following license information: AZ Mortgage Banker License 0925918. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CA Residential Mortgage Lending Act License 4130655. CO Mortgage Company – Regulated by the Division of Real Estate. Delaware Lender License 10885. GA Mortgage Lender License 22114– Georgia Residential Mortgage Licensee. IL Residential Mortgage License MB.6760323-DBA1– Illinois Residential Mortgage Licensee. MA Mortgage Broker License MC2129. MA Mortgage Lender License MC2129. Licensed by the N.J. Department of Banking and Insurance – New Jersey Residential Mortgage Lender License. Licensed Mortgage Banker-NYS Department of Financial Service. NY Mortgage Banker License B501049. Ohio Mortgage Broker Act Certificate of Registration MB.804158.000. Ohio Mortgage Loan Act Certificate of Registration SM.501888.000. OR Mortgage Lending License ML-4265. Licensed Mortgage Banker by the PA Department of Banking – Pennsylvania Mortgage Lender License 45048. Rhode Island Licensed Lender 20142998LL.

 

 

 

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