Pending Home Sales Head Back Up by Ron Schulz


Brought to you by Ron Schulz




For the week of august 5, 2019




  Flying? I’ve been to almost as many places as my luggage! –Bob Hope, American comedian  





The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported their Pending Home Sales [] index of contracts signed on existing homes spiked 2.8% in June, landing up 1.6% year-over-year, ending 17-months of annual declines.

The NAR’s chief economist sees a positive trend: “Job growth is doing well, the stock market is near an all-time high and home values are consistently increasing… combined with the incredible low mortgage rates…”

Last week’s Fed rate cut won’t directly affect mortgage rates, but it should boost housing inventory. One home builder said lower rates will make construction “more affordable at a time when labor and material costs are increasing.”






RATES DOWN, JOBS UP, STOCKS FALL?… The Fed cut rates, we got more jobs in July, yet stocks took their worst weekly dive since December? Yup! Investors worried about higher tariffs on China and a slowing global economy.

Hey, the Fed cited “global developments” that threaten “the economic outlook” as a reason to cut rates to help the economy, even though “economic activity has been rising” and “the labor market remains strong.” Go figure.

Yes, folks, that labor market is strong, with 164,000 jobs added in July, hourly earnings up 3.2% from a year ago, and unemployment steady at 3.7%, even with 370,000 more people in the labor force.

The week ended with the Dow down 2.6%, to 26485; the S&P 500 down 3.1%, to 2932; and the Nasdaq down 3.9%, to 8004.

With stocks and the Fed rate falling, bonds naturally rose. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond went UP .22, to $103.72. In Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate matched last week’s, near a three-year low. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?… Freddie Mac []‘s chief economist expects “stronger housing starts and increased home sales for the remainder of the year as homebuyers benefit from very attractive mortgage rates, lower prices at the gas pump, plus a gradual bump up in wages.”






SERVICE ECONOMY GROWS, WHOLESALE INFLATION NOT SO MUCH… The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index should show solid growth, important for the service sector of our economy that generates the overwhelming majority of our jobs. The Producer Price Index (PPI) forecast has wholesale price inflation up a smidge.

NOTE: Weaker economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and higher loan rates.






Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… Now that the Fed made its quarter percent rate cut last week, everyone sees another quarter percent dip in September, with many expecting one more in October. Note: In the lower chart, a 97% probability of change is only a 3% probability the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 2.00%-2.25%

Sep 18 1.75%-2.00%
Oct 30 1.50%-1.75%
Dec 11 1.50%-1.75%


Probability of change from current policy:

Sep 18    97%
Oct 30    59%
Dec 11    50%






  Try not to “post and ghost” on social media. When people comment on your post, take the opportunity to build a relationship. Get them into a conversation and send them a request to connect.  


  Ron Schulz
Senior Loan Officer
NMLS# 266128

6060 North Central Exp #462
Dallas, TX 75206

Office: 214-346-5279
Mobile: 214-794-4014 []







This post is an advertisement for Ron Schulz. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in this message is the property of Supreme Lending and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. This message is intended for business professionals only and is not intended for distribution to consumers or other third parties. The material does not represent the opinion of Supreme Lending. ADVERTISEMENT. Offer not contingent on use of specific settlement service provider. ADVERTISEMENT. EVERETT FINANCIAL, INC. D/B/A SUPREME LENDING NMLS ID #2129 ( 14801 Quorum Dr., #300, Dallas, TX 75254. 877-350-5225. Copyright © 2019. Not an offer or agreement. Information, rates, & programs are subject to change without prior notice. Not available in all states. Subject to credit & property approval. Not affiliated with any government agency. Supreme Lending is required to disclose the following license information: AZ Mortgage Banker License 0925918. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CA Residential Mortgage Lending Act License 4130655. CO Mortgage Company – Regulated by the Division of Real Estate. Delaware Lender License 10885. GA Mortgage Lender License 22114– Georgia Residential Mortgage Licensee. IL Residential Mortgage License MB.6760323-DBA1– Illinois Residential Mortgage Licensee. MA Mortgage Broker License MC2129. MA Mortgage Lender License MC2129. Licensed by the N.J. Department of Banking and Insurance – New Jersey Residential Mortgage Lender License. Licensed Mortgage Banker-NYS Department of Financial Service. NY Mortgage Banker License B501049. Ohio Mortgage Broker Act Certificate of Registration MB.804158.000. Ohio Mortgage Loan Act Certificate of Registration SM.501888.000. OR Mortgage Lending License ML-4265. Licensed Mortgage Banker by the PA Department of Banking – Pennsylvania Mortgage Lender License 45048. Rhode Island Licensed Lender 20142998LL.




Leave a Reply