More on Equifax, flood insurance, Harvey relief by Ron Schulz

For the week of September 18, 2017 — Vol. 15, Issue 37

>> Market Update

QUOTATION OF THE WEEK…“It’s not the will to win that matters. Everyone has that. It’s the will to prepare to win that matters.”–Bear Bryant, American college football player and coach

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE… After its massive data breach, credit bureau Equifax faces investigations by the House, Senate, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Federal Trade Commission (FTC), New York Attorney General, and state of Massachusetts. Because of glitches on the Equifax consumer information site, the NYAG advised people to “call Equifax to see if their data was compromised.” The FTC suggests getting free credit reports at annualcreditreport.com, and if you suspect identity theft, visit IdentityTheft.gov. They also warn of scammers calling, pretending to be Equifax: “Don’t tell them anything. Equifax will not call you out of the blue.” See more on the FTC website. 

Hurricanes Harvey and Irma hit just before the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) was set to expire. But President Trump has signed an extension that gives Congress until December 8 to come up with a long-term NFIP solution, and the bill also provides substantial relief to Hurricane Harvey victims (most had no flood insurance). Mortgage data provider Black Knight reports purchase lending hit a 10-year high in Q2, 16% ahead of last year. A property database reports, as of July 31 there are 14 million equity rich properties, where the total mortgage amount is 50% or less than the estimated market value. That’s a 1.6 million gain over last year.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK… Success is built on teamwork. Even if you’re solo, every client relationship creates a team, as does every professional relationship you establish to meet a client’s needs. Teamwork works!

>> Review of Last Week

SHAKING IT OFF… We’ve recently had two hurricanes, another North Korean missile fired over Japan and some disappointing economic data, but investors shook it all off and sent the Dow and S&P 500 to new all-time highs last week. It was the Dow’s biggest weekly gain since December and the S&P 500’s largest since January. The worst news for us was the hotter-than-expected inflation read, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) up 0.4% in August and up 1.9% year-over-year. This dialed up expectations the Fed at this week’s meeting will start reducing the assets it bought to shore up the financial crisis, and then do a rate hike in December.

Retail Sales disappointed, down 0.2% in August, but one equity manager observed, “given the storms, it’s hard to read too much into it.” Hurricanes Harvey and Irma are tragedies with an impact that will be felt a long time, and our thoughts remain with all those affected. In addition, economists say the storms may disrupt GDP near term, but the rebuilding process and the healthy underpinnings of the overall economy point to continued improving growth. It may be a few months for demand to get back to normal, but people are upbeat. The latest University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reports that consumers’ assessment of their financial situation is the best it’s been in more than a decade.  

The week ended with the Dow UP 2.2%, to 22268; the S&P 500 UP 1.6%, to 2500; and the Nasdaq UP 1.4%, to 6448.

The bond market saw a safe haven sell off, despite the less-than-excellent economic data. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch finished the week down .39, to $105.36. National average 30-year fixed mortgage rates held at their 2017 low in Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending September 14. But their chief economist cautioned, “mortgage rates could see an increase in next week’s survey.” Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?… A personal finance website reports home flipping in 2016 hit its highest point since 2007, with investors turning the largest average gross profit since 2000—nearly $63,000 per flip.

>> This Week’s Forecast

EXISTING HOME SALES OFF, BUT HOME BUILDING UP, PHILLY FACTORIES HANG IN Hampered by tight inventory in many markets, Existing Home Sales are forecast to slip a bit in August. But Housing Starts should be up for the month, though Building Permits for future work are expected to slide. The Philadelphia Fed Index is predicted to show manufacturing expanding in that important region, but at a slightly less robust rate.

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Sep 18 – Sep 22

Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact
Tu
Sep 19
08:30 Housing Starts Aug 1.170M 1.155M Moderate
Tu
Sep 19
08:30 Building Permits Aug 1.212M 1.223M Moderate
W
Sep 20
10:00 Existing Home Sales Aug 5.42M 5.44M Moderate
W
Sep 20
10:30 Crude Inventories 09/16 NA 5.9M Moderate
W
Sep 20
14:00 FOMC Rate Decision Sep 1.0%-1.25% 1.0%-1.25% HIGH
Th
Sep 21
08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 09/16 310K 284K Moderate
Th
Sep 21
08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 09/09 NA 1.94M Moderate
Th
Sep 21
08:30 Philadelphia Fed Index Sep 17.1 18.9 HIGH

 

>> Federal Reserve Watch

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months…The futures market sees no rate hike at this week’s FOMC meeting. But hold on, they’re now forecasting a better-than-even chance the Fed will push up the rates by a quarter of a percent in December. Last week they thought late spring. Go figure. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 1.0%-1.25%

After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Sep 20 1.0%-1.25%
Nov 1 1.0%-1.25%
Dec 13 1.0%-1.25%

 

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Sep 20   1%
Nov 1   5%
Dec 13 58%

Ron Schulz

Senior Loan Officer

Supreme Lending

Direct Phone 214-346-5279

Cell Phone 214-794-4014

Website www.ronschulz.com

13140 Coit Rd # 502

Dallas TX 75240

NMLS # 266128

This post is an advertisement for Ron Schulz. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in this message is the property of Supreme Lending and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. This message is intended for business professionals only and is not intended for distribution to consumers or other third parties. The material does not represent the opinion of Supreme Lending. EVERETT FINANCIAL, INC. D/B/A SUPREME LENDING NMLS ID #2129 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org) 14801 Quorum Dr., #300, Dallas, TX 75254. 877-350-5225. Copyright © 2017. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement. Information, rates, & programs are subject to change without prior notice and may not be available in all states. All products are subject to credit & property approval. Supreme Lending is not affiliated with any government agency. Supreme Lending is required to disclose the following license information: AZ Mortgage Banker License 0925918, AZ Principal Office: 25030 S 190th Street, Queen Creek, AZ 85142. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CA Residential Mortgage Lending Act License 4130655. CO Mortgage Company – Regulated by the Division of Real Estate. GA Mortgage Lender License 22114– Georgia Residential Mortgage Licensee. IL Residential Mortgage License MB.6760323-DBA1– Illinois Residential Mortgage Licensee. NV Division of Mortgage Lending Mortgage Banker License 4063. Licensed by the N.J. Department of Banking and Insurance – New Jersey Residential Mortgage Lender License. Licensed Mortgage Banker-NYS Department of Financial Service. NY Mortgage Banker License B501049. OR Mortgage Lending License ML-4265. Licensed Mortgage Banker by the PA Department of Banking – Pennsylvania Mortgage Lender License 45048. Rhode Island Licensed Lender 20142998LL. TX – SML Mortgage Banker Registration – Residential Mortgage Loan Originator. Massachusetts Mortgage Broker License MC2129. Massachusetts Mortgage Lender License MC2129.

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