Market Update: Housing Market Performing Better than Last Year by Ron Schulz

For the week of April 24, 2017 – Vol. 15, Issue 16

>> Market Update

QUOTATION OF THE WEEK… “I don’t set trends. I just find out what they are and exploit them.” –Dick Clark, American radio and TV personality

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE … A good trend for us to exploit is the upward trend that continues in home building. That may seem like a far-fetched statement if all you saw was the headline number for March Housing Starts–down 6.8%. But wait. That’s coming off their big February boost thanks to unusually mild weather–plus, the March Housing Starts 1.215 million unit annual rate is UP 9.2% over a year ago. Want more proof of the upward trend? New Building Permits were UP 3.6% in March, with single-family permits UP 13.5% versus a year ago. No wonder April’s National Association of Home Builders sentiment index sits at a solid 68.

Friday we learned that Existing Home Sales were UP 4.4% in March, hitting a 5.71 million annual rate, their highest pace in more than a decade! This puts those sales 5.9% ahead of where they were a year ago. Demand was so strong that 48% of the existing homes sold were on the market less than a month. Reflecting this trend, the Potential Home Sales model from a provider of settlement services shows the housing market performing 47% better than last year. Their chief economist said the model measures what “a healthy market level of home sales should be, based on the economic, demographic, and housing market environments.”

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK… Want to jump-start your efforts? Double your goals. That will take you outside of your comfort zone and bring out your best.

>> Review of Last Week

PARLEZ-VOUS ‘TAX CUT’?… Do you speak ‘tax cut’? Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and White House chief economic advisor Gary Cohn did last week, and their talk of impending tax cuts sent the stock market up. But they didn’t speak French, uttering not a word about France’s presidential election. Smart move, as investors worry that two of the top four candidates in the first round want France to leave the European Union, not a popular idea on Wall Street. But Friday President Trump revealed he’d release a “massive tax cut package” this week and that was enough to push the three major stock indexes ahead for the five days of trading.

In addition to prospects for tax cuts, investors could feel good about some things going on in the economy. The Existing Home Sales upside surprise was a beaut, along with encouraging data on the manufacturing front. Industrial Production went up 0.5% in March, and overall Capacity Utilization increased to 76.1%. The New York Empire State Index showed continued manufacturing improvement in that region. The same goes for the Philadelphia Fed Index.
Healthier manufacturing means more good-paying jobs, and that’s great for the housing market. Finally, Continuing Unemployment Claims fell below the 2 million level.

The week ended with the Dow UP 0.5%, to 20548; the S&P 500 UP 0.8%, to 2349; and the Nasdaq UP 1.8%, to 5911.

U.S. Treasuries and other bonds made small gains, as investors shored up their safe harbor positions before those pesky French elections. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch finished the week down .06, at $105.33. National average 30-year fixed mortgage rates dropped again in Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending April 20. This time they hit their lowest mark since November of last year. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?… A provider of loan origination software reports that the average time to close a loan is now at its lowest level in two years–43 days. 

>> This Week’s Forecast

NEW HOME SALES DIP, EMPLOYMENT COSTS UP, MANUFACTURING GROWS… We’ll get a look at March New Home Sales, which are predicted to slip a bit, remaining just south of the 600,000 units per year threshold. The Employment Cost Index is expected to edge up, good for wage growth (and housing!), though the Fed also sees that as an indicator of rising inflation, with rates eventually doing the same. The Chicago PMI is forecast to show Midwest manufacturing still growing at a nice pace.

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Apr 24 – Apr 28

 Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact
Tu
Apr 25
10:00 New Home Sales Mar 590K 592K Moderate
Tu
Apr 25
10:00 Consumer Confidence Apr 122.3 125.6 Moderate
W
Apr 26
10:30 Crude Inventories 4/22 NA -1.03M Moderate
Th
Apr 27
08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 4/22 242K 244K Moderate
Th
Apr 27
08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 4/15 NA 1.979M Moderate
Th
Apr 27
08:30 Durable Goods Orders Mar 1.2% 1.7% Moderate
Th
Apr 27
10:00 Pending Home Sales Mar NA 5.5% Moderate
F
Apr 28
08:30 GDP – Advanced Q1 1.1% 2.1% Moderate
F
Apr 28
10:00 Employment Cost Index Q1 0.6% 0.5% HIGH
F
Apr 28
09:45 Chicago PMI Apr 56.9 57.7 HIGH
F
Apr 28
10:00 U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Final Apr 98.0 98.0 Moderate

 

>> Federal Reserve Watch

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… Economists expect the Fed to keep rates where they are in May, but there’s a better than even chance we’ll see a quarter percent hike in July. Note: In the lower chart, a 5% probability of change is a 95% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0.75%-1.0%

After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
May 3 0.75%-1.0%
Jun 14 1.0%-1.25%
Jul 26 1.0%-1.25%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
May 3         5%
Jun 14       53%
Jul 26       58%
Ron Schulz
Senior Loan Officer
NMLS# 266128
13140 Coit Rd # 502
Dallas, TX 75240
Office: 214-346-5279
Mobile: 214-794-4014
Fax: 972-284-0715
ron.schulz@supremelending.com
www.ronschulz.com

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