Inside Lending Newsletter with Home Sales Forecast

Inside Lending Newsletter
For the week of March 6, 2017 – Vol. 15, Issue 9

>>Market Update 

QUOTATION OF THE WEEK… “High expectations are the key to everything.” –Sam Walton, American businessman

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE … The founder of the world’s largest retailer would have preferred a higher level of expectations from the latest Pending Home Sales Index. This National Association of Realtors (NAR) measure of contracts signed on existing homes declined 2.8% in January. But this was a drop from an upwardly revised number for December. Plus, Pending Home Sales are still ahead of where they were a year ago. And actual existing home sales are forecast to reach 5.57 million this year, up 2.2% from 2016, with the median home price up 4%. Last year saw these sales grow 3.8%, with prices up 5.1%.

There is concern about the shortage of listings in many areas of the country, which is edging up home prices. Indeed, the latest Case-Shiller Home Price Index reported a 5.8% annual increase in December, a 30-month high. Yet the Index Committee’s Chair pointed out: “Looking at real or inflation-adjusted home prices…the annual increase in home prices is currently 3.8%.” His conclusion? “Home prices are rising, but the speed is not alarming.” And demand is there. The NAR chief economist explained that as households grow more confident in their personal finances and job growth continues throughout the country, home sales increase across the country.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK… Get in the habit of taking action, instead of just thinking about it. Don’t be rash, of course, but do spend less time reflecting–and more time doing. You’ll be surprised at how much you’ll accomplish.

>> Review of Last Week

CATCHING THE WAVE... The week featured some better than expected economic data, plus a bit of a recovery in oil prices, whose decline had the year.

The week’s good economic data featured a sharp rebound in Durable Goods Orders, up 4.9% in January following their drop in December. Initial Unncome ca
rate hike.

The week ended with the Dow UP 1.5%, to 16640; the S&P 500 UP 1.6%, to 1948; and the Nasdaq UP 1.9%, to 4590.

Friday’s positive economic news hurt bond prices, as investor money left the safety play to get in on the action in equities.
The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch finished the weekUP .46, at $105.38.
N
ational average 30-year fixed mortgage rates broke the holding pattern they’ve been in the past month and moved lower in Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending March 2. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?… Billionaire investor Warren Buffett says manufactured homes account for about 70% of new American homes that cost less than $150,000. His Berkshire Hathaway firm owns the largest U.S. builder of such homes. 

>>This Week’s Forecast

PRODUCTIVITY GAINS AND SO DO JOBS This week should

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Mar 6 – Mar 10

 

 Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact
Tu
Mar 7
08:30 Trade Balance Jan B -$44.3B Moderate
W
Mar 8
08:30 Productivity – Rev. Q4 % 1.3% Moderate
W
Mar 8
08:30 Unit Labor Costs – Rev. Q4 % 1.7% Moderate
W
Mar 8
10:30 Crude Inventories 3/4 NA +1.5M Moderate
Th
Mar 9
08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 3/4 2K 223K Moderate
Th
Mar 9
08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 2/25 NA 2.066M Moderate
F
Mar 10
08:30 Average Workweek Feb 34.6 34.4 HIGH
F
Mar 10
08:30 Hourly Earnings Feb 0.2% 0.1% HIGH
F
Mar 10
08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Feb K 227K HIGH
F
Mar 10
08:30 Unemployment Rate Feb 4.9% 4.8% HIGH

>> Federal Reserve Watch

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… Three out of four economists see the central bank raising rates a quarter of a percent at next week’s FOMC meeting. But they expect no more hikes for the next two meetings. Note: In the lower chart, an 80% probability of change is only a 20% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0.5%-0.75%

 

After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Mar 15 0.75%-1.0%
May 3 0.75%-1.0%
Jun 14 0.75%-1.0%

Probability of change from current policy:

 

After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Mar 15       80%
May 3       82%
Jun 14       91%

Ron Schulz
Senior Loan Officer
NMLS# 266128
13140 Coit Rd # 502
Dallas, TX 75240
Office: 214-346-5279
Mobile: 214-794-4014
Fax: 972-284-0715
ron.schulz@supremelending.com
www.ronschulz.com

This document is an advertisement for Ron Schulz. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in this message is the property of Supreme Lending and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. This message is intended for business professionals only and is not intended for distribution to consumers or other third parties. The material does not represent the opinion of Supreme Lending. EVERETT FINANCIAL, INC. D/B/A SUPREME LENDING NMLS ID #2129 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org) 14801 Quorum Dr., #300, Dallas, TX 75254. 877-350-5225. Copyright © 2017. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement. Information, rates, & programs are subject to change without prior notice and may not be available in all states. All products are subject to credit & property approval. Supreme Lending is not affiliated with any government agency. Supreme Lending is required to disclose the following license information: AZ Mortgage Banker License 0925918, AZ Principal Office: 25030 S 190th Street, Queen Creek, AZ 85142. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CA Residential Mortgage Lending Act License 4130655. CO Mortgage Company – Regulated by the Division of Real Estate. GA Mortgage Lender License 22114– Georgia Residential Mortgage Licensee. IL Residential Mortgage License MB.6760323-DBA1– Illinois Residential Mortgage Licensee. NV Division of Mortgage Lending Mortgage Banker License 4063. Licensed by the N.J. Department of Banking and Insurance – New Jersey Residential Mortgage Lender License. Licensed Mortgage Banker-NYS Department of Financial Service. NY Mortgage Banker License B501049. OR Mortgage Lending License ML-4265. Licensed Mortgage Banker by the PA Department of Banking – Pennsylvania Mortgage Lender License 45048. Rhode Island Licensed Lender 20142998LL. TX – SML Mortgage Banker Registration – Residential Mortgage Loan Originator.

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