Home Sales Take A Holiday Break by Ron Schulz

 

Brought to you by Ron Schulz

 

 

   

For the week of february 3, 2020

 

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

 
  “Quality is not an act, it is a habit.”–Aristotle, ancient Greek philosopher  

 

   

NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE

 
   

At year end, everyone likes a break, including home buyers, so New Home Sales [em.mediacenternow.com] dipped 0.4% in December. But they still ended up 23.0% ahead of a year ago! Total sales for 2019 hit a post-recession high, 10.8% ahead of 2018.

December also saw fewer buyers sign contracts on existing homes. The Pending Homes Sales [em.mediacenternow.com] index that measures those signings slipped 4.9% after its gain in November, suggesting a January drop in Existing Home Sales.

Good news on prices for buyers. The median price of new homes sold in December rose a mere 0.5% over a year ago. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index of all homes sold is up just 3.5% for the year, down from 5.0%.

 

 

   

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

 
   

UNHEALTHY DEVELOPMENTS… The World Health Organization, the President, and three major airlines took measures to curb the coronavirus, as concerns rose over its global impact on human and economic health, and stocks sank.

The epidemic could cut U.S. economic growth in the first quarter, after the initial read on Q4 GDP reported the economy growing a better-than-expected 2.1%, while unemployment claims fell further.  

The Fed met and left rates alone, happy with the economy though wishing inflation were closer to their 2% target. For the year, Personal Income is up 3.9% and Personal Spending up 5.0%, so, yeah, things look pretty good.

The week ended with the Dow down 2.5%, to 28,256; the S&P 500 down 2.1%, to 3,226; and the Nasdaq down 1.8%, to 9,151.

Another week of coronavirus worries boosted bonds. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond ended UP .12, to $104.45. Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey says the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped to its second lowest level in three years. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?… In the fourth quarter of 2019, the U.S. homeownership rate rose to 65.1%, its highest level in six years, as falling mortgage rates and rising wages helped more Americans finance homes.

 

 

   

THIS WEEK’S FORECAST

 
   

MANUFACTURING, SERVICES, JOBS, WAGES ALL HEAD UP… We should see the ISM Manufacturing Index rebound but stay under 50, showing contraction. But the far larger services sector, measured by the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, is expected to report strong growth, along with January Nonfarm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings.

NOTE: Weaker economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and higher loan rates.

 

 

   

FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH

 
   

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… There is growing sentiment on Wall Street there will be a quarter percent rate cut later this year. We’ll see. Note: In the lower chart, a 23% probability of change is a 77% probability the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 1.50%-1.75%

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS
Mar 18 1.50%-1.75%
Apr 29 1.50%-1.75%
Jun 10 1.25%-1.50%

 

Probability of change from current policy:

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS
Mar 18    23%
Apr 29     43%
Jun 10     59%

 

 

 

   

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK

 
  Stay persistent. Never give up, and never ignore a potential opportunity, even if negative thoughts are telling you to give up. There are always ups and downs, but those who are tenacious and do not give up are the ones who succeed.  

 

  Ron Schulz
Senior Loan Officer
NMLS# 266128

5612 Richmond Ave
Dallas, TX 75206

Office: 214-346-5279
Mobile: 214-794-4014
ron.schulz@supremelending.com
www.ronschulz.com [em.mediacenternow.com]

 

   

 

[em.mediacenternow.com]

 

   

This post an advertisement for Ron Schulz. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in this message is the property of Supreme Lending and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. This message is intended for business professionals only and is not intended for distribution to consumers or other third parties. The material does not represent the opinion of Supreme Lending. ADVERTISEMENT. Offer not contingent on use of specific settlement service provider. ADVERTISEMENT. EVERETT FINANCIAL, INC. D/B/A SUPREME LENDING NMLS ID #2129 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org) 14801 Quorum Dr., #300, Dallas, TX 75254. 877-350-5225. Copyright © 2020. Not an offer or agreement. Information, rates, & programs are subject to change without prior notice. Not available in all states. Subject to credit & property approval. Not affiliated with any government agency. Supreme Lending is required to disclose the following license information: AZ Mortgage Banker License 0925918. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CA Residential Mortgage Lending Act License 4130655. CO Mortgage Company – Regulated by the Division of Real Estate. Delaware Lender License 10885. GA Mortgage Lender License 22114– Georgia Residential Mortgage Licensee. IL Residential Mortgage License MB.6760323-DBA1– Illinois Residential Mortgage Licensee. MA Mortgage Broker License MC2129. MA Mortgage Lender License MC2129. Licensed by the N.J. Department of Banking and Insurance – New Jersey Residential Mortgage Lender License. Licensed Mortgage Banker-NYS Department of Financial Service. NY Mortgage Banker License B501049. Ohio Mortgage Broker Act Certificate of Registration MB.804158.000. Ohio Mortgage Loan Act Certificate of Registration SM.501888.000. OR Mortgage Lending License ML-4265. Licensed Mortgage Banker by the PA Department of Banking – Pennsylvania Mortgage Lender License 45048. Rhode Island Licensed Lender 20142998LL.

 

 

 

Leave a Reply