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Brought to you by Ron Schulz
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FOR THE WEEK OF OCTOBER 15, 2018

YOUR WEEKLY SMILE
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Why did the belt get arrested? For holding up a pair of pants!
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MARKET UPDATE
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Fannie Mae‘s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) slipped a tick overall in September, though the share of respondents who say now is a good time to buy rose by 5%.
The ADP and Moody’s Analytics National Employment Report revealed 34,000 construction jobs were added to the economy in September. That should boost home building activity.
Recent data reveals home prices are easing some–17.4% of Trulia’s listings in August had price cuts, up from 16.7% a year ago, and now at the highest level in four years.
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REVIEW OF LAST WEEK
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OUCH!… Stocks dipped badly, then recovered, though not enough to avoid the S&P 500’s worst week since March. Rate concerns caused the pain, as bond prices dropped, sending yields (and possibly interest rates) up.
But the Fed hikes rates to tame inflation, and last week, CPI inflation came in lower than expected. Anyway, as one analyst put it, “higher interest rates are warranted when the economy is strong.”
Hey, S&P 500 companies should report Q3 earnings up almost 20% the past year, according to FactSet. Plus, preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for October came in higher than the average read for 2018.
The week ended with the Dow down 4.2%, to 25340; the S&P 500 down 4.1%, to 2767; and the Nasdaq down 3.7%, to 7497.
Bond prices in general went lower, although the 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond ended UP .16, to $100.13. In Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate headed back up. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.
DID YOU KNOW?… The latest Zillow Group study on consumer housing trends reports down payments averaged 15 percent for first-time buyers.
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THIS WEEK’S FORECAST
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EXISTING HOME SALES, HOUSING STARTS SLIP; PERMITS, RETAIL SOAR; WE CHECK ON THE FED… The forecast is for a slower pace of Existing Home Sales and Housing Starts in September, but Building Permits and Retail Salesshould climb, good signs going forward. And FOMC Minutes will tell us what the Fed said at the last meeting.
NOTE: Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and higher loan rates.
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FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH
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Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… Despite last week’s talk about rising rates, the Fed futures market expects no changes until a quarter percent bump at the final FOMC meeting of the year. Note: In the lower chart, a 2% probability of change is a 98% probability the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 2.00%-2.25%
AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: |
CONSENSUS |
Nov 8 |
2.00%-2.25% |
Dec 19 |
2.25%-2.50% |
Jan 30 |
2.25%-2.50% |
Probability of change from current policy:
AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: |
CONSENSUS |
Nov 8 |
2% |
Dec 19 |
80% |
Jan 30 |
25% |
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BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK
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Do something you’re hesitant to attempt, like making a video with your smartphone. Get through it by telling yourself you’re not actually going to post it. But you just might wind up with something you’ll want to put out there.
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Ron Schulz
Senior Loan Officer
NMLS# 266128
6060 North Central Exp #438
Dallas, TX 75206
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This post is an advertisement for Ron Schulz. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in this message is the property of Supreme Lending and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. This message is intended for business professionals only and is not intended for distribution to consumers or other third parties. The material does not represent the opinion of Supreme Lending. EVERETT FINANCIAL, INC. D/B/A SUPREME LENDING NMLS ID #2129 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org) 14801 Quorum Dr., #300, Dallas, TX 75254. 877-350-5225. Copyright © 2018. Not an offer or agreement. Information, rates, & programs are subject to change without prior notice. Not available in all states. Subject to credit & property approval. Not affiliated with any government agency. AZ Mortgage Banker License 0925918, AZ Principal Office: 25030 S 190th Street, Queen Creek, AZ 85142. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CA Residential Mortgage Lending Act License 4130655. CO Mortgage Company – Regulated by the Division of Real Estate. Delaware Lender License 10885. GA Mortgage Lender License 22114– Georgia Residential Mortgage Licensee. IL Residential Mortgage License MB.6760323-DBA1– Illinois Residential Mortgage Licensee. MA Mortgage Broker License MC2129. MA Mortgage Lender License MC2129. Licensed by the N.J. Department of Banking and Insurance – New Jersey Residential Mortgage Lender License. Licensed Mortgage Banker-NYS Department of Financial Service. NY Mortgage Banker License B501049. Ohio Mortgage Broker Act Certificate of Registration MB.804158.000. Ohio Mortgage Loan Act Certificate of Registration SM.501888.000. OR Mortgage Lending License ML-4265. Licensed Mortgage Banker by the PA Department of Banking – Pennsylvania Mortgage Lender License 45048. Rhode Island Licensed Lender 20142998LL.
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